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世界石油化工产品市场人士预测说,90年代亚洲地区的石油化工产品将继续较大幅度地低于需求.目前北美和中东地区向亚洲大量出口石化产品的格局将持续.据预测,到1988年亚洲地区对石油化工产品的需求和生产之间的缺口将达360万t乙烯的折合量,仅经1993年的390万t乙烯折合量略微下降.预计1998年中国内地石化产品的短缺量将增至200万t,台湾供应缺口达130万t.今后几年中国内地对石化产品需求的增长速度每年平均为10.3%,台湾3.9%,印度为8.5%,东盟国家为8.4%,韩国为5%.亚洲地区的石化生产能力也在迅速扩大,去年亚洲的乙烯产量为800万t,1998年将增至1400万t.占全球产量的比例将由11%上升为15%,但仍赶不上需求上升速度.
World oil and petrochemical product market predicts that petrochemical products in Asia in the 1990s will continue to be significantly lower than demand. Currently, the pattern of large-scale export of petrochemical products to Asia in North America and the Middle East will continue. It is predicted that by 1988 in Asia The gap between demand and production of petrochemical products in the region will reach the equivalent of 3.6 million tons of ethylene, which is only slightly reduced by the 3.9 million tons of ethylene in 1993. It is expected that the shortage of petrochemical products in mainland China will increase to 2 million tons, Taiwan’s supply gap reached 1.3 million t. In the next few years, China’s domestic demand for petrochemical products will grow at an average rate of 10.3% per year, 3.9% in Taiwan, 8.5% in India, 8.4% in ASEAN countries, and 5% in South Korea. Asia’s petrochemical production capacity is also rapidly expanding. Last year, Asia’s ethylene production was 8 million tons, and in 1998 it will increase to 14 million tons. The proportion of global production will increase from 11% to 15%, but still not keep up with the increase in demand.