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针对食品供应链安全风险预测问题,首先利用故障树分析方法建立了食品供应链安全问题的故障树模型,然后根据故障树向贝叶斯网络的转化规则,建立了食品供应链安全风险预测的贝叶斯网络模型。实例分析结果表明,综合利用故障树分析和贝叶斯网络方法,能实现对食品供应链整体及节点安全风险水平的有效预测,为食品供应链安全监管的实施提供决策支持。
Aiming at the problem of food supply chain security risk prediction, a fault tree model of food supply chain security problem is firstly established by using fault tree analysis method. Then, based on the transformation rules of the fault tree to Bayesian Networks, the security risk prediction of food supply chain Yeats network model. The case study shows that the comprehensive utilization of fault tree analysis and Bayesian network can effectively predict the safety risks of the whole food supply chain and nodes, and provide decision support for the implementation of food supply chain safety regulation.