法国主权信用评级被调降可能会导致新发国债收益率上升。但上升幅度是有限的,短期内法国爆发主权债务危机的概率很低。自2013年春季塞浦路斯危机爆发以来,欧洲主权债务危机的演进相对平静,没有新的重大事件爆发。希腊、葡萄牙、西班牙、意大利等外围国家的结构调整正在进行,特别是国内劳动力市场的调整已经导致实际劳动力成本下降,使得这些国家的竞争力有所恢复。因此,除非美联储退出量宽的行为给欧元区国家造成新的冲击,否则,未来半年内欧债危机加剧的可能性不大。鉴于耶伦上台可能导致美联储退出量化宽松的节奏在整体上推迟半年,因此欧债危机遭遇外部冲击性的概率也有所下降。但我们不能指望欧债危机能够在 The French sovereign credit rating is lowered may result in an increase in the rate of return of new bonds. However, the rate of increase is limited and the probability of a sovereign debt crisis in France will be low in the short term. Since the outbreak of the Cyprus crisis in the spring of 2013, the evolution of the European sovereign debt crisis has been relatively calm with no new major event erupted. Structural adjustment is under way in peripheral countries such as Greece, Portugal, Spain and Italy, and in particular, the adjustment of the domestic labor market has led to a drop in real labor costs, which has restored the competitiveness of these countries. Therefore, unless the Federal Reserve exits a wide range of new strikes to the euro-zone countries, it is unlikely that the European debt crisis will aggravate in the next six months. In view of the fact that Yellen’s coming to power may cause the Federal Reserve to pull out of quantitative easing, which is postponed for six months as a whole, the probability of external shocks to the European debt crisis has also dropped. But we can not expect the debt crisis in Europe to be there