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美联储公布9月议息会议结果,维持基准利率不变,并且暗示12月份加息的可能性。在国内货币高增、美联储加息预期背景下,人民币贬值压力仍存,宽松货币政策也将受到限制。由于短期经济稳定,基数原因令四季度通胀存上行风险,因而货币宽松延后,债市收益率下行。而短期内利率下行空间有限,预计4季度震荡为主。交易员表示,10-12月是淡季,不如3-5月旺季火爆。
The Fed announced the outcome of the September meeting, maintaining the benchmark interest rate unchanged, and hinted at the possibility of raising interest rates in December. Against the backdrop of a surge in domestic currency and expectations of a rate hike by the Federal Reserve, the devaluation pressure of the renminbi still exists and loose monetary policy will also be limited. Owing to the short-term economic stability, the fourth quarter inflation posed the upward risk due to the base factor. As a result, the monetary easing lagged behind and the bond yield went down. In the short term, the downside of the interest rate is limited and it is expected that the main shock in 4Q10. Traders said 10-12 months is the off-season, as 3-5 season hot.