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根据近30年来广东省中部沿海地区17个验潮站的风暴潮资料,计算了多年一遇风暴潮增水值,确定广东省阳江—汕尾沿海地区多年一遇风暴潮的淹没范围,对不同区域风暴潮的危险性进行分析评价;从系统学角度出发,对阳江—汕尾沿岸风暴潮灾害易损性因子进行综合分析,从社会经济、土地利用、生态环境、滨海构造物和承灾能力5个方面对风暴潮承灾体进行易损性评估,建立了广东省中部沿海地区风暴潮易损性评价指标体系和易损性评估模型.在风暴潮灾害危险性评价和易损性评估的基础上,建立了广东省沿海中部地区多年一遇风暴潮综合风险评估模型,结合未来多年一遇风暴潮情景,对阳江—汕尾沿海地区风暴潮灾害风险进行综合评估,绘制广东省中部沿海地区风暴潮灾害风险评价图.
Based on the storm surge data from 17 tide gauge stations in the coastal area of central Guangdong province in the past 30 years, the stormwater surge value in many years was calculated to determine the inundation range of storm surge in the Yangjiang-Shanwei coastal area for many years in Guangdong Province. From the perspective of systematics, this paper analyzes the vulnerability of the storm surge in the Yangjiang-Shanwei coastal area comprehensively. From the perspectives of social economy, land use, ecological environment, coastal structures and the capacity of bearing capacity The vulnerability assessment of the storm surge disaster-bearing body was carried out and the assessment index system and the vulnerability assessment model of the storm surge in the coastal area of central Guangdong Province were established.On the basis of the risk assessment and vulnerability assessment of the storm surge, , Established a multi-year storm surge integrated risk assessment model in the coastal area of central Guangdong Province, and combined with the situation of storm surge in years to come, conducted a comprehensive assessment of the storm surge hazards in the Yangjiang-Shanwei coastal area and mapped out storm surge hazards in the coastal areas of central Guangdong Risk assessment chart.