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从现在起到2025年,持续增长的人口、经济发展的需要和对环境保护管理的疏漏无疑会使中国的用水供求和水污染情况更为严重。因而对中国水资源的使用和挖掘制定一个行之有效的策略迫在眉睫。我们用模型推导出的水策略是包括水资源调度,海水淡化,水资源存储和水资源保护在内的四个方面的一个完整优化的规划和策略。首先,我们对中国到2025年的水资源供求关系做出预测。第二步,我们研究了水资源调度问题。先计算出了一条最短的管道,随后优化模型,通过计算每个缺水区域到每个多水区域的最短路径的总和排列出了优先考虑调度区域的顺序。再根据平衡分析的方法,总结出多水区域调度到缺水区域的顺序和具体的水资源量。第三步,我们考虑了海水淡化的方法。通过列出约束方程和使用一步反转模型,我们详细罗列了每个沿海区域在每个年周期内需要种植的用于海水淡化的大小植物的数量。第四步,我们通过物流与供应链管理探究了水资源存储的方法。第五步,则利用微分法和静态优化计算出在某个区域要种植用来净化水资源的植物的数量和具体污染问题能够被解决的年份。第六步,我们通过分层分析模型权衡了以上提到的四个方案的优先度。接下来,针对每一步建立的模型和方法,我们进行了评估,讨论,并提出了改进的余地。
From now till 2025, the continuously increasing population, the need of economic development and omission of environmental protection management will undoubtedly make China’s water supply and demand and water pollution worse. Therefore it is imminent to formulate an effective strategy for the use and excavation of water resources in China. The water strategy we derive from the model is a fully optimized plan and strategy covering four aspects, including water resource dispatch, desalination, water storage and water resources protection. First of all, we predict the water supply and demand in China by 2025. The second step, we studied the issue of water resources scheduling. First calculate a shortest pipe, and then optimize the model, by arranging the sum of the shortest path from each water-deficit area to each multi-water area to arrange the order of priority scheduling area. According to the method of balance analysis, the order and specific water resources of multi-water area dispatching to water-scarce area are concluded. The third step, we considered the desalination method. By listing the constraint equations and using the one-step inversion model, we detail the number of large and small plants that need to be planted for desalination in each coastal area in each year. The fourth step, we explore the method of water storage through logistics and supply chain management. In the fifth step, the number of plants to be used to purify water resources in a certain area and the year in which the specific pollution problem can be solved are calculated using differential method and static optimization. In the sixth step, we have weighed the priority of the four programs mentioned above through the hierarchical analysis model. Next, we evaluated, discussed, and proposed improvements for the models and methodologies we built up at each step.