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目前国际上设计波高的常用计算方法有三种:年最大波高法(Annual Maximum method)、波高阈值法(Peak-Over-Threshold method)和年N大波法(Annual-NLargest method)。利用澳大利亚悉尼观测站连续16年的实测资料和Gumbel概率分布函数对这三种方法进行分析和比较,选出一种比较好的计算方法。结果表明,由年最大波高法计算得到的设计波高值偏大,线性回归系数较小,均方误也较大;波高阈值法计算所得结果与阈值本身取值关系并不大,线性回归相关性也较好;年N大波法计算得到的设计波高与每年大波数量取值无关(N≥5时),均方误较小,线性回归相关性较好。因此,在这三种方法中,年N大波法更适合用来计算设计波高,建议每年大波数取5~6个。
At present, there are three commonly used methods for calculating wave height in the world: Annual Maximum method, Peak-Over-Threshold method and Annual-NLargest method. The three methods are analyzed and compared by using the observed data of Sydney Observatory in Australia for 16 consecutive years and the Gumbel probability distribution function to select a better calculation method. The results show that the value of the designed wave height calculated by the maximum wave height method is too large, the linear regression coefficient is small and the mean square error is also large. The calculated value of the wave height threshold method does not have a significant relationship with the threshold value, and the linear regression correlation Which is also better. The calculated wave height calculated by the N-wave method has nothing to do with the annual number of large waves (N≥5), the mean square error is small, and the correlation between linear regression is good. Therefore, among these three methods, the annual N wave method is more suitable for calculating the designed wave height, and it is recommended that the annual wave number be taken from 5 to 6.