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本文基于国际贸易理论和引力模型,构建了中国农业虚拟水国际贸易影响因素的时空引力模型,以中国与40个贸易伙伴国1994～2008年面板数据为样本,进行了实证检验。检验结果表明:与中国农业虚拟水国际贸易正相关的因素为农业劳动力要素禀赋、技术水平、农业规模经济、需求方收入水平、汇率水平及加入WTO等,负相关的因素包括土地和水资源要素禀赋、全国GDP水平、价格水平及区域性经济组织(东盟自由贸易区);农业虚拟水国际贸易的空间效应弱于其时间效应,时间效应明显。文章最后给出了政策启示。
Based on the theory of international trade and gravity model, this paper constructs a model of space-time gravity for the influencing factors of international trade of agricultural virtual water in China, and conducts an empirical test based on the panel data of China and 40 trading partners from 1994 to 2008. The test results showed that the factors that positively correlated with the international trade of China’s agricultural virtual water were the factor endowments of agricultural labor force, technical level, economies of scale of the agricultural sector, income level of the demand side, exchange rate and accession to the WTO. The negative correlations include land and water resources Endowment, national GDP level, price level and regional economic organizations (ASEAN Free Trade Area). The spatial effect of agricultural virtual water international trade is weaker than its time effect, and the time effect is obvious. Finally, the article gives the policy implications.