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本文论述了对地震前兆的预测能力进行统计评价的重要性,着重分析了已有的几种评价方法的统计意义和物理实质。应用K. AKi提出的概率增益的概念讨论了多重前兆之间的相互独立性的统计鉴别方法。以金安蜀等对北京地区的波速比研究结果和刘正荣等对全球109次震群的研究结果为例,对其预测能力作了试评。
This paper discusses the importance of statistical evaluation of the prediction ability of earthquake precursors, and emphatically analyzes the statistical significance and physical essence of several existing evaluation methods. The concept of probability gain proposed by K. AKi discusses the statistical identification of the mutual independence of multiple precursors. Based on the results of wave velocity ratio research in Beijing and Jin Zhengshu and other research results of Liu Zhengrong on the 109 earthquakes in the world, the paper evaluates the prediction ability.