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能源税对我国交通运输能源强度降低的作用效果一直存在争议。为对此问题进行实证检验,文章将能源价格设置为调节变量,研究其对交通运输能源强度的影响,以及对交通运输结构、经济的交通运输依存度和技术进步的调节作用。研究选取1988～2008年时间序列数据,采用层级回归方法进行了实证研究。研究结果表明,能源价格的提高对交通运输能源强度降低作用微弱,也未发现其对交通运输结构、经济的交通运输依存度和技术进步存在显著调节作用。我国交通运输能源强度增加的主要原因是经济发展。
The effect of energy tax on the reduction of energy intensity in transportation in China has been controversial. In order to test the problem empirically, the article sets energy prices as a regulatory variable to study its impact on the energy intensity of transportation and its regulatory role on transportation structure, economic dependence on transportation and technological progress. The study selected the time series data from 1988 to 2008 and conducted empirical research using the hierarchical regression method. The results show that the increase of energy price has a weak effect on the reduction of energy intensity of transportation and no significant adjustment on traffic structure, economic dependence on transportation and technological progress has been found. The main reason for the increase of transport energy intensity in our country is economic development.