论文部分内容阅读
Although in recent years the Chinese Government has been controlling and cutting surplus capacity， this year’s measures are particularly stern， sending a signal to foreign investors planning new projects in China to avoid industries embroiled in excessive overcapacity.
In October， the State Council， the country’s cabinet， released the Guideline to Tackle Serious Production Overcapacity， listing five sectors with serious overcapacity： cement， electrolytic aluminum， sheet glass， shipping and steel. According to the guideline， in five years the Chinese Government plans to get production capacity in the five industries down to a reasonable level compatible with the environment， market demand and resource supplies.
The guideline aims at tackling surplus through measures such as prohibiting newly built projects， closing unqualified projects， reducing surplus capacity through mergers and acquisitions （M&As） and expanding domestic demand.
The State Council required related ministries and commissions to formulate detailed measures. On November 13， the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology（MIIT） issued a document on thresholds for the shipbuilding industry， putting forward specific requirements in production facilities， equipment， measurement and detection， construction technical capacity， technology innovation， quality assurance system， energy conservation， and environmental protection. Enterprises that fail to meet these requirements will be shut down.
The Ministry of Land and Resources announced on November 15 it would strengthen control of land resource devel- opment and stop approval of land use by projects in steel， cement， electrolytic aluminum， sheet glass and shipbuilding industries with serious surplus capacity. No land will be granted for newly added capacity for already existing projects in these industries.
Fu Baozong， an associate researcher with the Academy of Macroeconomic Research under the National Development and Reform Commission （NDRC）， says the guidelines will play a key role in boosting industrial upgrading and transforming the economic growth model.
Bottom line
China used to have a very serious problem in demand outstripping supply. The situation improved after the policy of reform and opening up in 1978， but supply still failed to meet demand. However， investment soared after China’s accession to the WTO in 2001， leading to surplus capacity in some industries. According to figures from the NDRC， at the end of 2012 only 72 percent， 73.7 percent， 71.9 percent， 73.1 percent and 75 percent of production capacity in China’s steel， cement， electrolytic aluminum， sheet glass and shipbuilding industries had been utilized. That is to say， about one fourth of production capacity in these industries was excessive.
There are still cases where new projects are planned in these industries， likely to intensify the overcapacity problem.
Excessive capacity drastically has cut profits among these industries， with most enterprises facing tough times. According to a report by Shanghai Securities News， by the end of September， among all 959 manufacturing companies listed on the A-share market in Shanghai and Shenzhen， the total inventory had reached 1.14 trillion yuan （$185.97 billion）， while the inventory turnover time was as long as 168 days. Many enterprises have their funds lying idle in inventories.
According to the MIIT figures， in industries with excessive capacity the average sales profit rate is below 3 percent， much lower than the average profit rate of 7 percent in all industries. Of these， steel companies have the lowest profit rate—lower than 1 percent—among all industries.
Also， the average asset-liability ratio in industries with overcapacity is around 60 percent， bringing huge pressure to bear on cash flows and financing sources. The assetliability ratio of the steel industry stands at 70 percent， and a few steel companies have their ratios higher than 100 percent.
If the overcapacity problem is not solved， it will inevitably intensify cut-throat market competition and enlarge industrial losses， the shutdown of enterprises， unemployment of workers and non-performing assets of banks， jeopardizing sound development of industries and the Chinese economy.
The Chinese market is so big， but why does overcapacity still occur？
Fu said there are short-term and longterm reasons for China’s surplus capacity. In the long term， since reform and opening up，China has been adopting an extensive model of development， where enterprises prefer simple expansion of scale but ignore improvement of technology and quality of development， leading to low-end rapid growth of production capacity. Moreover， local governments excessively concentrate on GDP growth， attracting investment through low land prices， environmental protection costs and labor costs， intensifying excessive production capacity. During the process of accelerated industrialization and urbanization， because market demand increases fast， some enterprises have unrealistic market expectations and blindly expand investment. China has long been at the low end of international industrial chains and its process of industrial upgrading is slow， therefore the excessively rapid expansion of low-end production capacity worsens the problem of overcapacity. In the short term， China has been relying on investment and exports to drive up economic growth， but the global financial and European debt crisis seriously curbed external demand. As it takes time to nurture domestic demand， and the total market demand shrank， it exacerbated the overcapacity problem.
The Western world is now accelerating the process of re-industrialization， and emerging economies are boosting industrialization and adjusting industrial structures， therefore the trend of global expansion of production capacity will not change in the short term. According to Fu， it will be unrealistic for China to rely on fast recovery of the external market in order to solve overcapacity. Of all the contributing factors， Fu thinks local governments are the most responsible. In many cases， overcapacity is not caused by misjudgment by enterprises， but blind investment pushed forward by local governments. Most industries that local governments support， including the newly emerging photovoltaic industry， have seen overcapacity， while in highly market-oriented industries such as textiles and home appliances， the overcapacity problem is not serious.
Fu said under a market economy， appropriate oversupply is precondition for market competition mechanisms to work， and helps balance supply and demand and boost technology advancement and management innovation. But when production capacity far exceeds effective demand， there will be a serious waste of social resources.
Withdrawal mechanism
Overcapacity is one of the problems the new cabinet hopes to solve since taking office in March. But restricting investment or shutting down surplus capacity only through administrative measures will not achieve the goal and may cause other problems.
A withdrawal mechanism of production capacity will be an important measure to tackle overcapacity under market rules.
The Enterprise Research Institute of the Development Research Center of the State Council has established a research group to determine “how to establish and improve corporate withdrawal policy system against the background of overcapacity.”
A report written by the research group suggests withdrawal of surplus capacity should be made through methods that include repurchase， M&As and outbound transfer of production capacity.
Repurchase means government， nongovernmental organizations or some enterprises purchase surplus equipment and infrastructure or even whole enterprises， in the industries with excessive capacity， and then cease production. Promoting M&As will reduce demand and improve product quality via industrial reorganization. Outbound transfer means to export or move products or production capacity in industries with overcapacity overseas.
In fact， the fast growth of China’s manufacturing industries mainly benefited from the transfer of surplus capacity by developed countries.
According to the report， China’s withdrawal mechanism of surplus capacity should be based on the establishment of sound market mechanisms， reducing withdrawal costs and simplifying withdrawal procedures. Direct government intervention in some specific industries should also rely on market mechanisms as much as possible.
The report suggests China learn from international experience in how to tackle overcapacity. In developed economies of the United States， Japan and Europe， there are mainly two ways： market-oriented withdrawal mechanism through deregistration and bankruptcy of enterprises； direct government intervention through fiscal， taxation， financial and industrial policies in the forms of repurchase， promoting M&As， stimulating consumption， limiting production and promoting outbound transfer of production capacity.
In October， the State Council， the country’s cabinet， released the Guideline to Tackle Serious Production Overcapacity， listing five sectors with serious overcapacity： cement， electrolytic aluminum， sheet glass， shipping and steel. According to the guideline， in five years the Chinese Government plans to get production capacity in the five industries down to a reasonable level compatible with the environment， market demand and resource supplies.
The guideline aims at tackling surplus through measures such as prohibiting newly built projects， closing unqualified projects， reducing surplus capacity through mergers and acquisitions （M&As） and expanding domestic demand.
The State Council required related ministries and commissions to formulate detailed measures. On November 13， the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology（MIIT） issued a document on thresholds for the shipbuilding industry， putting forward specific requirements in production facilities， equipment， measurement and detection， construction technical capacity， technology innovation， quality assurance system， energy conservation， and environmental protection. Enterprises that fail to meet these requirements will be shut down.
The Ministry of Land and Resources announced on November 15 it would strengthen control of land resource devel- opment and stop approval of land use by projects in steel， cement， electrolytic aluminum， sheet glass and shipbuilding industries with serious surplus capacity. No land will be granted for newly added capacity for already existing projects in these industries.
Fu Baozong， an associate researcher with the Academy of Macroeconomic Research under the National Development and Reform Commission （NDRC）， says the guidelines will play a key role in boosting industrial upgrading and transforming the economic growth model.
Bottom line
China used to have a very serious problem in demand outstripping supply. The situation improved after the policy of reform and opening up in 1978， but supply still failed to meet demand. However， investment soared after China’s accession to the WTO in 2001， leading to surplus capacity in some industries. According to figures from the NDRC， at the end of 2012 only 72 percent， 73.7 percent， 71.9 percent， 73.1 percent and 75 percent of production capacity in China’s steel， cement， electrolytic aluminum， sheet glass and shipbuilding industries had been utilized. That is to say， about one fourth of production capacity in these industries was excessive.
There are still cases where new projects are planned in these industries， likely to intensify the overcapacity problem.
Excessive capacity drastically has cut profits among these industries， with most enterprises facing tough times. According to a report by Shanghai Securities News， by the end of September， among all 959 manufacturing companies listed on the A-share market in Shanghai and Shenzhen， the total inventory had reached 1.14 trillion yuan （$185.97 billion）， while the inventory turnover time was as long as 168 days. Many enterprises have their funds lying idle in inventories.
According to the MIIT figures， in industries with excessive capacity the average sales profit rate is below 3 percent， much lower than the average profit rate of 7 percent in all industries. Of these， steel companies have the lowest profit rate—lower than 1 percent—among all industries.
Also， the average asset-liability ratio in industries with overcapacity is around 60 percent， bringing huge pressure to bear on cash flows and financing sources. The assetliability ratio of the steel industry stands at 70 percent， and a few steel companies have their ratios higher than 100 percent.
If the overcapacity problem is not solved， it will inevitably intensify cut-throat market competition and enlarge industrial losses， the shutdown of enterprises， unemployment of workers and non-performing assets of banks， jeopardizing sound development of industries and the Chinese economy.
The Chinese market is so big， but why does overcapacity still occur？
Fu said there are short-term and longterm reasons for China’s surplus capacity. In the long term， since reform and opening up，China has been adopting an extensive model of development， where enterprises prefer simple expansion of scale but ignore improvement of technology and quality of development， leading to low-end rapid growth of production capacity. Moreover， local governments excessively concentrate on GDP growth， attracting investment through low land prices， environmental protection costs and labor costs， intensifying excessive production capacity. During the process of accelerated industrialization and urbanization， because market demand increases fast， some enterprises have unrealistic market expectations and blindly expand investment. China has long been at the low end of international industrial chains and its process of industrial upgrading is slow， therefore the excessively rapid expansion of low-end production capacity worsens the problem of overcapacity. In the short term， China has been relying on investment and exports to drive up economic growth， but the global financial and European debt crisis seriously curbed external demand. As it takes time to nurture domestic demand， and the total market demand shrank， it exacerbated the overcapacity problem.
The Western world is now accelerating the process of re-industrialization， and emerging economies are boosting industrialization and adjusting industrial structures， therefore the trend of global expansion of production capacity will not change in the short term. According to Fu， it will be unrealistic for China to rely on fast recovery of the external market in order to solve overcapacity. Of all the contributing factors， Fu thinks local governments are the most responsible. In many cases， overcapacity is not caused by misjudgment by enterprises， but blind investment pushed forward by local governments. Most industries that local governments support， including the newly emerging photovoltaic industry， have seen overcapacity， while in highly market-oriented industries such as textiles and home appliances， the overcapacity problem is not serious.
Fu said under a market economy， appropriate oversupply is precondition for market competition mechanisms to work， and helps balance supply and demand and boost technology advancement and management innovation. But when production capacity far exceeds effective demand， there will be a serious waste of social resources.
Withdrawal mechanism
Overcapacity is one of the problems the new cabinet hopes to solve since taking office in March. But restricting investment or shutting down surplus capacity only through administrative measures will not achieve the goal and may cause other problems.
A withdrawal mechanism of production capacity will be an important measure to tackle overcapacity under market rules.
The Enterprise Research Institute of the Development Research Center of the State Council has established a research group to determine “how to establish and improve corporate withdrawal policy system against the background of overcapacity.”
A report written by the research group suggests withdrawal of surplus capacity should be made through methods that include repurchase， M&As and outbound transfer of production capacity.
Repurchase means government， nongovernmental organizations or some enterprises purchase surplus equipment and infrastructure or even whole enterprises， in the industries with excessive capacity， and then cease production. Promoting M&As will reduce demand and improve product quality via industrial reorganization. Outbound transfer means to export or move products or production capacity in industries with overcapacity overseas.
In fact， the fast growth of China’s manufacturing industries mainly benefited from the transfer of surplus capacity by developed countries.
According to the report， China’s withdrawal mechanism of surplus capacity should be based on the establishment of sound market mechanisms， reducing withdrawal costs and simplifying withdrawal procedures. Direct government intervention in some specific industries should also rely on market mechanisms as much as possible.
The report suggests China learn from international experience in how to tackle overcapacity. In developed economies of the United States， Japan and Europe， there are mainly two ways： market-oriented withdrawal mechanism through deregistration and bankruptcy of enterprises； direct government intervention through fiscal， taxation， financial and industrial policies in the forms of repurchase， promoting M&As， stimulating consumption， limiting production and promoting outbound transfer of production capacity.