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美国《新科学家》杂志1977年3月17日第73卷1043期刊登了费城科学情报研究所(Institute forScientific In formation)总编阿朗森(Steve Aaronson)撰写的《地震预报的社会代价》一文。文前的提要说:“当救援队清理布加勒斯特瓦砾(按指1977年3月4日罗马尼亚7.5级地震造成的破坏情况——译注)时,地震预报的可能性成了主要的论题。但当这篇文章作了清楚地阐述,这样一项人道主义的服务事业涉及的问题就远比单纯的仪器和科技人力所需费用要多得多。”全文译载如下(文内小标题是原有的):
Vol. 73, No. 1043, March 17, 1977, by The New American Journal of Scientists, published a paper entitled “Social Costs of Earthquake Prediction” by Steve Aaronson, editor-in-chief of the Institute for Scientific In formation, Philadelphia. “The possibility of an earthquake prediction becomes a major topic when relief teams clean up the rubble in Bucharest, referring to the damage caused by the 7.5-magnitude earthquake in Romania on March 4, 1977. But when this Article clearly states that such a humanitarian service involves far more problems than simply the cost of instrumentation and scientific and technical personnel. ”The full text is reproduced as follows (the subtitle is the original ):