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国际水文科学协会已提出针对干旱半干旱区的“无资料地区的水文预测”项目。水已成为制约西北干旱半干旱区社会经济发展和生活改善的主要因素。预测全球变化和人类活动下的水循环过程和水资源变化格局是重要的。文中以黑河上游为研究区,应用IHACRES模型模拟黑河上游降水-径流过程。结果表明:IHACRES模型可以较好地模拟研究区的日出山径流量;率定期确定性系数达0.766,验证期确定性系数为0.71;确定黑河上游地区的基流指数为0.539;黑河上游经莺落峡水文站向中游输送水量为14.9亿m3,其中地表径流与基流分别占46.1%和53.9%;模型模拟受流域面积大及降雪等因素影响,使模拟精度降低;最后指出IHACRES模型适合缺乏资料地区水文模拟的研究。
The International Association of Hydrological Sciences has proposed a “Hydrological Prediction” project for arid and semi-arid zones in “no-material areas”. Water has become a major factor restricting the socio-economic development and living improvement in the arid and semi-arid regions of Northwest China. It is important to predict the water cycle and changes in water patterns under global change and human activities. In the upper reaches of the Heihe River, the IHACRES model was used to simulate the precipitation-runoff processes in the upper reaches of the Heihe River. The results show that the IHACRES model can simulate the sunrise trail flow in the study area well; the periodic deterministic coefficient is 0.766, the confirmatory coefficient is 0.71; the base flow index in the upper reaches of Heihe River is 0.539; The hydrological station delivered 1.49 billion m3 of water to the middle reaches, of which surface runoff and base flow accounted for 46.1% and 53.9% respectively. The model simulation was affected by the large area of the basin and snowfall, which reduced the accuracy of the simulation. Finally, it was pointed out that the IHACRES model is suitable for the lack of data area Hydrological simulation research.