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一、外部环境 (一)国际环境。 据国际货币基金组织最新预测,1996年世界经济增长将达4.1％,比1995年增长率超过0.4个百分点,创近8年来的最高纪录。从地区与国家情况来看,美国经济增长可能略缓慢,欧洲联盟将保持今年的增长速度,日本结束三年来的衰退,经济增长率将达2.3％,北美洲、拉丁美洲经济增长加速,东欧经济将继续复苏,俄罗斯经济走出谷底。而据亚洲开发银行预测,1996年亚洲地区经济增长率将从去年的8％放慢到7.4％,这主要是因各国和地区政府都力求在没有通货膨胀的情况下实现稳定增长,纷纷实施紧缩政策。尽管亚洲今明两年经济增速放缓,但该地区的经济扩展速度仍会超过其他地区。
First, the external environment (A) the international environment. According to the latest forecast of the International Monetary Fund, the world economic growth in 1996 will reach 4.1%, more than 0.4 percentage points growth rate in 1995, the highest record in nearly eight years. Judging from the regional and national conditions, the U.S. economy may be slow to grow slightly. The European Union will maintain its growth rate this year. Japan will end its recession in the past three years with an economic growth rate of 2.3%. The economies of North and Latin America will accelerate. The economies of Eastern Europe Will continue to recover, the Russian economy out of the trough. According to the forecast by the Asian Development Bank, the economic growth rate in Asia will slow to 7.4% from 8% last year in 1996, mainly because all countries and regions are striving to achieve steady growth without inflation and have implemented austerity measures policy. Although economic growth in Asia will slow in the next two years, the economy in the region will still expand at a faster pace than other regions.