本文应用数理统计方法与概念模型方法探讨了害虫的多年预测。用时间序列法与概念模型,在微电脑上,对无锡地区的历史资料进行了数量分析,建立了无锡地区稻纵卷叶螟第二代发生期与发生量的多年预测模型。对于历史资料的回代验试,结果令人满意。 This paper discusses the pest prediction in many years by mathematical statistics method and conceptual model method. Using time series method and conceptual model, we analyzed the historical data of Wuxi in the micro-computer and established the multi-year prediction model of the occurrence and occurrence of the second generation of rice leaf roller in Wuxi. For the historical data back to the test, the result is satisfactory.