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为了揭示路网层面各因素对城郊公路安全的影响,采用宏观安全分析方法,基于交通分析小区(TAZ)层面构建了泊松对数正态条件自回归(PLN-CAR)模型。为考虑相邻TAZ间的空间相关性,分别采用0-1矩阵、共同边界矩阵以及相邻TAZ间衔接城郊公路总车道数3类空间权重矩阵构建了PLN-CAR模型。模型中同时考虑了公路层面变量(信控交叉口密度、接入口密度等)以及TAZ层面宏观变量(路网形态、土地利用类型等)。研究结果表明:采用共同边界矩阵的模型表现最优;相较于微观安全研究而言,采用宏观安全分析方法可以更加完整地考虑接入口密度以及信控交叉口密度对城郊公路路段与交叉口整体安全的影响;城郊公路长度、沿线接入口与信控交叉口密度均对城郊公路事故总数有显著正相关影响;在其他变量保持不变的情况下,树枝型路网TAZ内城郊公路事故数较网格型路网多88.3%,表明通过加强城郊公路沿线接入口管理,规范公路沿线信控交叉口设置,并于公路两侧规划建设平行的次干路可以有效改善其安全状况;相对工业仓储用地而言,商业办公用地和居住生活用地内的城郊公路更加容易发生事故。
In order to reveal the influence of road-level factors on the highway safety in suburban areas, a Poisson Log-normal Autoregressive (PLN-CAR) model was constructed based on the TAZ level using macro-safety analysis. In order to consider the spatial correlation between adjacent TAZs, the PLN-CAR model is constructed by using 0-1 matrix, common boundary matrix and three types of spatial weight matrixes of the total number of adjacent lanes in the adjacent TAZ suburb. The model also takes into account the variables at the highway level (intersection density, access density, etc.) as well as macro variables at the TAZ level (road network patterns, land use types, etc.). The results show that the model with the common boundary matrix performs best. Compared with the micro-safety research, the macroscopic safety analysis method can more completely consider the access port density and the density of the signal control intersection to the whole of the suburban highway sections and intersections The length of suburban roads, the density of entrances along the road and the density of signalized intersections have a significant positive correlation with the total number of road accidents in the suburbs; while the other variables remain unchanged, the number of suburban road accidents within the branches of TAZ 88.3% of the grids were gridded, which indicated that the security conditions were effectively improved by strengthening the management of entrances along the suburban roads, standardizing the setting of the signalized intersections along the roads and planning and constructing parallel secondary roads on both sides of the roads. Relatively speaking, In terms of, commercial and residential land for living in suburban roads is more prone to accidents.