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本文通过对此次美国次贷危机形成的成因进行分析,引出可以从收入结构的角度来分析收入结构的变化与经济波动之间的关系。文章首先利用美国的年度数据分析了大萧条期间居民收入结构的变化与经济波动之间的关系。在此基础上,本文研究了美国1929—2008年居民收入结构的变化趋势与此次经济危机之间的关系,并提出财产性收入会影响经济波动的理由。然后运用AR(3)-GARCH(1,1)模型拟合美国二战以来的真实GDP的波动情况,建立GDP波动、财产性收入占总收入比重的VAR模型,通过格兰杰因果关系检验得出财产性收入占比能显著单向影响经济稳定性的结论。最后,通过对中国居民收入结构变化趋势的分析,提出在“创造条件让更多群众拥有财产性收入”的基础上,应当控制财产性收入的过分膨胀以优化收入结构,促进经济稳定增长。
By analyzing the causes of the formation of the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States, this paper analyzes the relationship between changes in income structure and economic fluctuations from the perspective of income structure. First, the article uses the annual data of the United States to analyze the relationship between the changes in resident income structure and economic fluctuations during the Great Depression. On this basis, this paper studies the relationship between the changing trend of the income structure of the United States from 1929 to 2008 and the current economic crisis and puts forward the reasons that the property income will affect the economic fluctuation. Then we use the AR (3) -GARCH (1,1) model to fit the real GDP fluctuation in the United States since the Second World War, and establish the VAR model of GDP volatility and property income in the total revenue. Through the Granger causality test The proportion of property income can significantly affect the economic stability of one-way conclusions. Finally, based on the analysis of the changing trend of the income structure of Chinese residents, it is proposed that on the basis of “creating conditions for more people to have property income ”, over-expansion of property income should be controlled to optimize the income structure and promote steady economic growth .