本文基于我国的资本市场与制度环境,运用全样本研究思路,运用Logit回归技术,建立预测模型。预测模型能够较好地预测目标公司,并且具有令人满意的稳定度,说明我国上市公司控制权转移具有较好的可预测性,从而在一定程度上反映出我国资本市场效率尚达不到中强式有效状态。 Based on China’s capital market and institutional environment, this paper uses the full sample of research ideas, using Logit regression technology to establish the forecasting model. The forecasting model can predict the target company well and has a satisfactory stability, indicating that the transfer of control of listed companies in our country is more predictable, which reflects the inefficiency of capital market in our country to a certain extent Strong effective state.