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自2013年5月以来,中国经济增长减速和美国缩减量化宽松的消息,对亚洲地区的增长预期造成了双重冲击。我们预期2013年下半年中国经济增长态势将同上半年大体相似,而美国经济自降至最低点后(可能发生在2013年二季度,我们预期二季度美国GDP季环比增长0.9%,经季节调整年化数据),下半年增长可能会加速。世界上两个最大经济体的需求预期摇摆不定将对那些开放程度高的亚洲国家造成显著影响。即便在亚洲经济增长更多来自国内需求增长的情况下,这一判断依旧正确。从外部关联的角度,我们将提出一个问题:
Since May 2013, the slowdown of China’s economic growth and the reduction of quantitative easing in the United States have caused a double impact on the growth expectation in Asia. We expect China’s economic growth in the second half of 2013 to be roughly similar to that in the first half of the year. After the U.S. economy dropped to its lowest level (probably in the second quarter of 2013, we expect the U.S. GDP to register a 0.9% quarter-on-quarter increase in the second quarter, Data), growth may accelerate in the second half. The expected volatility in the demand of the two largest economies in the world will have a significant impact on those highly open Asian countries. This judgment is still true even as Asia’s economic growth comes more from domestic demand growth. From an external perspective, we will ask a question: