论文部分内容阅读
我们用VAN的最新规则,对1987～1989年之间的预报进行再评估。这次再评估没有修改我们以前的结论:VAN预报的警告率和成功率都太低了,不能作为候选前兆,而且它与地震的时间相关程度也反面证明了它不能作为前兆。同时,再评估也证明了它对1987～1989年之间的预报有明显地跟随地震的倾向,有13次地震被地点相近但时间范围为11天的预报所跟踪。保持规则不变,对限制操作区域解释为工作网的减少,对1990～1992年之间的独立的VAN预报进行验证,结果否定了VAN预报与地震明显有关,但肯定了VAN预报更倾向于跟从地震而不是超前于地震。
We use the latest VAN rules to reassess the forecast from 1987 to 1989. This reassessment did not change our previous conclusion that both the warning rate and the success rate of VAN forecasts are too low to serve as a candidate precursor and that its time-related correlation with the earthquake also proves that it can not be used as a precursor. At the same time, the reassessment also proved that it had a clear tendency to follow the earthquake for the period from 1987 to 1989. Thirteen earthquakes were followed by forecasts of similar locations but with a time range of 11 days. Maintaining the same rules and interpreting the restricted operating area as a reduction of the working network, the independent VAN forecasts between 1990 and 1992 were validated. The results negatively implied that the VAN forecasts were obviously related to the earthquakes but affirmed that the VAN forecasts are more likely to follow Earthquake rather than ahead of the earthquake.