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不同于将产业集群静态外部特征描述作为其演进机理的现有成果,文章围绕集群演进源自产业迂回度增加这一理论实质,运用超边际分析方法,构建了普适意义上的内生专业化一般动态均衡模型,通过不同的参数设置,模拟中间及最终产品的产出变化。经过三个阶段的数理模型分析,发现“中间产品生产的专业化经济程度”和“互补性经济程度”是影响产业集群演化过程型态的关键因素。当前者强于后者时,集群发展将呈现稳定的递阶演化;相反,则会出现可逆、不稳的阶跃式演化。该结论将为我国不同区域的产业发展模式与道路选择提供理论参考。
Different from the existing achievements of the static external characteristic description of industrial cluster as its evolution mechanism, this paper focuses on the fact that the evolution of the cluster originates from the theoretical essence of the increased industrial circuitousness. By using the method of the inframarginal analysis, this paper builds a universal endogenous specialization The general dynamic equilibrium model, through different parameter settings, simulates the output changes in the middle and final products. After three stages of mathematical model analysis, it is found that “the degree of specialization in the production of intermediate products” and “degree of complementarity in economy” are the key factors that influence the evolution of industrial clusters. When the former is stronger than the latter, the development of clusters will show a stable evolution of the order; on the contrary, there will be a reversible and unsteady step evolution. This conclusion will provide theoretical reference for the industrial development mode and road choice in different regions of our country.