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50年代初人们曾根据当时的技术经济条件和工业社会对自然资源特别是矿产资源高速增长的需求,提出了著名的资源耗竭理论。如今,全球矿产资源形势出现了重大变化:全球经济发展速度及其对矿产资源需求的增长速度逐步放慢,随着勘查开发技术的进步和对矿业活动资金投入的增长,矿产资源供应获得明显改善。从80年代初开始,国际市场基本上呈现供大于求局面。正是在这种形势下,一些资源经济学家提出了与资源耗竭理论相悖的观点。本刊1994年第1期《2000年矿业生产的展望》以及本期发表的这篇文章即是上述观点的代表作。作者指出,矿产资源尽管存在不可再生性,但从目前情况看,近四十年并没有发生全球性的实质性危机。资源耗竭仅仅是对资源前景预测得出的理论性结论,并非现实存在的问题。从现代意义上讲,矿产资源危机可以通过增加对矿产勘查开发活动的投入并依靠科学技术进步等多种途径加以解决。当然,这种观点正确与否可以争论。
In the early 1950s, according to the then technical and economical conditions and the industrial society’s demand for the rapid growth of natural resources, especially mineral resources, people put forward the famous theory of resource depletion. Nowadays, there have been major changes in the global mineral resources situation: the pace of global economic development and the slowdown in its growth in the demand for mineral resources have been significantly improved with the advancement of exploration and development technologies and the increase in capital investment in mining activities . Since the early 1980s, the international market has basically shown the oversupply situation. It is in this situation that some resource economists have put forward the view contrary to the theory of depletion of resources. Our first issue of 1994 “prospect of mining in 2000” and the current issue of this article is the representative of the above point of view. The author points out that although mineral resources are not renewable, no substantive global crisis has occurred in the recent four decades. The exhaustion of resources is only a theoretical conclusion drawn from the prediction of the resource prospect and is not a real problem. In the modern sense, the crisis of mineral resources can be solved by increasing investment in mineral exploration and development activities and relying on scientific and technological progress. Of course, this view is correct or not arguable.