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通过实证研究判断上海农业发展是否以环境质量下降为代价。首先,参照IPCC及上海农业碳排放前期研究,核算上海9个郊县的农业碳汇和碳排放量,分析农业碳排放的发展趋势、农业碳排放强度和农业碳排放结构,农业能耗在农业碳排放总量中所占比例从2002年的50%增加到2012年的80%。然后,利用STATA13.0软件对上海9个郊区在1993—2013年农业生产活动的面板数据进行分析,检验上海郊区农业发展与农业碳排放者之间是否存在类似环境库茨涅兹曲线关系,回归结果显示,平均每1亿元农业产值将带来0.825 0万吨CO_2排放当量,95%置信区间为(0.743 0,0.907 0)。最后,基于农业碳排放估算和实证分析结果,提出上海进一步减少农业碳排放的方向和具体措施。
Empirical research to determine whether Shanghai’s agricultural development at the cost of declining environmental quality. First of all, with reference to IPCC and Shanghai agricultural carbon emissions preliminary research, accounting of agricultural carbon sinks and carbon emissions in nine suburbs of Shanghai, analysis of the development trend of agricultural carbon emissions, agricultural carbon emissions intensity and agricultural carbon emissions structure, agricultural energy consumption in agriculture The share of total carbon emissions increased from 50% in 2002 to 80% in 2012. Then, STATA13.0 software was used to analyze the panel data of agricultural production activities in nine suburbs in Shanghai from 1993 to 2013 to test whether there is a similar environmental Kutzian curve between agricultural development and agricultural carbon emission in Shanghai suburbs. The results show that the average agricultural output per 100 million yuan will bring about 0.825 million tons of CO2 emission equivalent, 95% confidence interval (0.743 0,0.907 0). Finally, based on the results of agricultural carbon emission estimation and empirical analysis, the direction and specific measures for further reducing agricultural carbon emissions in Shanghai are put forward.