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应急方案选择是应急管理领域一项重要的研究课题。在实际的应急方案选择过程中,决策者往往不是完全理性,而具有一定的心理行为。针对属性具有优先序的应急方案选择问题,提出一种考虑应急决策者损失规避和失望规避行为的决策分析方法。一方面,考虑到决策者的参照依赖和损失规避行为,根据属性信息和期望参考点计算应急方案的前景值;另一方面,考虑到决策者的失望规避心理行为以及重视高风险低概率事件的心理,计算应急方案的失望-愉悦值;进一步,根据应急方案的前景值、失望一愉悦值和属性的优先序,确定属性的优先权重向量。最后,通过计算得到应急方案的综合感知值对应急方案进行排序。
The choice of contingency plan is an important research topic in the field of emergency management. In the actual emergency plan selection process, policy makers are often not completely rational, but have a certain psychological behavior. Aiming at the selection of contingency plans with prioritized attributes, a decision analytic approach considering the loss avoidance and disappointment evasion behaviors of emergency decision makers is proposed. On the one hand, taking into account the decision maker’s reference dependence and loss avoidance behavior, the future value of the contingency plan is calculated based on the attribute information and expected reference point. On the other hand, considering the disappointment of decision makers to avoid the psychological behavior and the high risk low probability event Psychology, calculating the disappointment-pleasure value of the contingency plan; further, determining the priority weight vector of the attribute according to the foreground value of the contingency plan, the disappointment-pleasure value and the priority of the attribute. Finally, the contingency plans can be sorted by calculating the comprehensive perceived value of the emergency plans.