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岩爆是采矿作业最可怕的危险之一。尽管不能在深层采矿作业中消除岩爆,但是如果能预测将要发生的岩爆的时空位置,就能将岩爆发生的危险和随之而带来的损失减到最小程度。本文介绍一种预测岩爆的经验方法。它以分析过去的岩爆地震数据为基础来预测未来6个月内的采矿过程申会产生的岩爆,该方法包括的步骤是矿区的地震区划分;分析应力状态来找出其转移方式;每个区中过去发生的岩爆的数量和大小的分布。预测的岩爆情况与实际记录到的情况相比,准确率为70％～80％,甚至预测的将来岩爆活动的位置与记录到的位置正好一致。我们根据印度科拉尔金矿的占皮雷佛(Champion Reef)矿区的岩爆记录来讨论这一方法。
Rockburst is one of the most dreaded dangers of mining operations. Although rockbursts can not be eliminated in deep mining operations, the danger of rockburst and consequent losses can be minimized if predictions are made on the location of the rockburst to occur. This article presents an empirical method for predicting rockburst. Based on the analysis of past rockburst seismic data, it predicts the rockburst occurring in the mining process within the next 6 months. The method includes the steps of dividing the seismic zone of the mining area, analyzing the stress state to find out the transfer mode, The number and size distribution of rockbursts that occurred in each area in the past. The predicted rock burst is 70% ~ 80% accurate compared with the actual records. Even the projected future rockburst locations are exactly the same as those recorded. We discuss this method based on rock burst records from the Champion Reef mine in the Corral gold mine in India.