欧洲中部的易北河流域是典型的湿润半湿润地区。夏季的水资源供给是限制农业生产的因素之一,特别是在具有较高农业生产力水平,而年降水量只有500mm的黄土地区。通过总结气候变化与水文循环(GLOWA-Elbe)项目第一阶段的成果,根据气候和土地利用变化的各种情景并考虑其不确定性,对未来50a德国易北河流域水资源供给稳定性作出综合评估。研究表明,欧洲中部必须从自然和社会角度应对未来气候变化情景下产生水资源供给短缺的可能情况。 The Elbe River basin in central Europe is a typical humid and semi-humid area. Summer water supply is one of the factors limiting agricultural production, especially in loess areas with high levels of agricultural productivity and annual precipitation of only 500 mm. Based on the results of the first phase of the GLOWA-Elbe project, the stability of the water supply to the Elbe in Germany in the future 50a is summarized based on various scenarios of climate and land-use change, taking into account their uncertainties Evaluation. Research shows that central Europe must respond naturally and socially to the potential for water supply shortages in the context of future climate change scenarios.