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探究技术未来发展趋势及其影响因素是深入理解后发国家技术赶超的基础。本文利用制造技术领域的技术预测问卷调查数据,实证研究知识产权限制如何影响我国技术未来发展格局变化。研究结果表明:技术受到专利制约不利于实现技术赶超;技术研发基础则对我国技术追赶产生了显著的正向影响效应,而且与专利制约联合影响下,正向影响非常明显。进一步的分析指出,技术追赶受到专利制约的影响呈现U型关系,专利制约超过拐点后将会对技术追赶呈显著正向影响。本文为理解后发国家未来技术发展格局变化、实现技术赶超提供了新的视角,对更好认识技术能力积累、辩证理解国际技术竞争也具有一定启发意义。
To explore the future development trend of technology and its influencing factors is to deeply understand the basis for technology catching up in late developed countries. This paper uses the technology in the field of manufacturing technology to predict the survey data and empirically studies how the restrictions on intellectual property affect the pattern of technological development in our country. The results show that: the technology subject to the patent is not conducive to technological catch-up; technology research and development base has a significant positive effect on China’s technology catch-up, and under the combined effect of patent constraints, the positive impact is very obvious. Further analysis points out that technology catch-up is subject to U-shaped relations under the influence of patent constraints, and patent restrictions beyond the inflection point will have a significant positive impact on technology catch-up. This article provides a new perspective for understanding the future technological development pattern of late-coming countries and catching up with technology catch-up. It is also of some inspiration to understand the accumulation of technological capabilities and dialectically understand the international technological competition.