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一等奖中国能源供求趋势、区域平衡及对策研究主要完成单位:物资部燃料司、国家计委地区经济司、中国燃料总公司该项目从强化国家对能源的宏观管理的角度出发,通过对我国能源供需现状进行分析,总结了近40年我国的经济增长规律,用弹性系数、因果分析、时间回归、指数平滑、部门综合分析等5种方法,运用电子计算机对我国能源供求总量、分区平衡进行了预测,重点从调整产业结构与布局、能源的合理使用与节约、加强管理和理顺价格等方面进行分析研究,提出了缓解能源供求矛盾,解决区域配置不合理的对策。该项目是列入国家科委1989年软科学计划的课题。
First Prize China’s Energy Supply and Demand Trends, Regional Equilibrium and Countermeasures Research Main Completion Units: Department of Materials, Fuels Division, State Planning Commission, Regional Economic Department, China National Fuel Corporation This project starts from strengthening the country’s macro energy management The current situation of energy supply and demand is analyzed, and the economic growth laws of China in the past 40 years are summarized. Five methods, including elasticity coefficient, causality analysis, time regression, exponential smoothing, and department comprehensive analysis, are applied to the total supply and demand of energy in China, and the divisional balance is applied. Forecasts were made, focusing on the analysis and study of adjusting industrial structure and layout, rational use and saving of energy, strengthening management, and straightening out prices, and proposed countermeasures to alleviate the contradiction between supply and demand of energy and to solve irrational regional arrangements. This project was included in the 1989 soft science project of the State Science and Technology Commission.