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科学学中的“普赖斯——纳林莫夫循环曲线”预测法认为,科学发展的进程,是按照当一门学科兴起时,由加速增长;在增至最大值的一半时,增长率变小;最后逆缓增长这样的规律发展的。但是增长率变小,并不意味着该学科研究的停滞。它一方面说明该学科的成熟,另一方面意味着它将面临科学上的某种突破和新老交替。一旦突破,则可能使人们的科学认识上升到更高的高度、更深的层次,并促使新的学科诞生。而新学科在新方向上又重新以上述循环曲线增长,开始一种渐次高级的重复。
The “Price-Narinov Cycle” projection in science holds the view that the process of scientific development is accelerated by the time when a discipline arises; when it increases to half the maximum, the growth rate Smaller; the last slow growth of the law of development. But smaller growth rates do not mean stagnation in the discipline. On the one hand it shows the maturity of the discipline, on the other hand it means that it will face a scientific breakthrough and the replacement of old and new. Once the breakthrough, may make people’s scientific understanding to a higher level, a deeper level, and to promote the birth of a new discipline. The new discipline in the new direction again to the above cycle curve growth, began a gradual senior repetition.