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定量社会学研究已不再满足于数据描述和限于浅表的关联分析,而是开始真正承担起解释、预测社会实质的学科使命。近十年来,我国定量社会学发展迅速,但也遭遇了双重危机——基于内生性问题的因果逻辑危机和基于时空问题的理论视野危机。双重危机交织在一起形成了目前定量研究的四“多”四“难”:多基于截面数据,难以进行因果推断;多囿于个体层面,难以进行宏观检验;多忽视濡染机制,难以进行空间分析;多限于当代调查,难以进行大历史研究。走出双重危机有五个途径,即追踪时间差异、培育实验思维、关注濡染机制、构建宏观测量和再建理论思维,定量社会学研究新范式可以在四个方面实现新的突破,即研究论据复合化、检验方法复制化、呈现方式精炼化、研究目标科学化。
Quantitative sociological research is no longer satisfied with data description and superficial association analysis, but begins to really assume the academic mission of explaining and predicting the social substance. In the past ten years, quantitative sociology in our country has developed rapidly, but also suffered from double crises - the causal logic crisis based on endogenous issues and the theoretical crisis of vision based on space-time issues. The double crises are intertwined to form the current “quantitative research” of four “more ” four “difficult ”: more based on cross-sectional data, it is difficult to make causal inference; more than individual level, it is difficult to conduct macro tests; Difficult to carry out spatial analysis; more limited to contemporary investigations, it is difficult to conduct a large historical study. Out of the double crisis there are five ways to trace the time difference, cultivate experimental thinking, attention to the mechanism of diarrhea, build macro measurement and reconstruction of theoretical thinking, Quantitative Sociology new paradigm can be achieved in four new breakthroughs, namely, , The test method is duplicated, the presentation mode is refined, and the research goal is scientific.