论文部分内容阅读
统计预测是以实际调查资料为基础,运用现代的科学理论和方法,根据事物的联系及其发展规律,采用适当的数学模型,探究所观察现象在今后可能的发展趋势,并作出估计和分析,以指导未来的行动方向,减少对未来事物的不确定性.预测的结果可作为制定防治计划和医疗工作量的依据.现对若干实用而简便有效的预测方法作一介绍. 1 指数修匀预测法该法的特点是假定事物过去的变化趋势会同样延续到未来时期,故又称外推预测法.预测时以本期观察数X_t和本期预测数??_t为依据,给两者以不同的权数,即:
Based on the actual survey data, the statistical forecast uses the modern scientific theories and methods to explore the possible trend of the observed phenomena in the future based on the connection and development law of the things, and adopts the appropriate mathematical model to make an estimate and analysis. So as to guide the future direction of action and reduce the uncertainty of future events.The results of the prediction can be used as the basis for formulating prevention and control plans and medical workloads.Now, some practical and simple and effective forecasting methods are introduced. France The law is characterized by the assumption that things past the same trend will continue into the future, it is also known as the extrapolation forecasting method to predict the current observation X_t and the current forecast ?? _ t basis for both Different weights, namely: