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为了制定科学、成本合理的燃气轮机维修策略,解决当前燃气轮机运行维修管理费用高的问题,提出一种基于多重环境时间相似(METS)理论的燃气轮机剩余寿命预测方法。该方法引入同目标机组具有相似运行环境的同类型机组作为参考机组,利用经验运行数据,求解其在实际运行条件与基准运行条件下寿命评估参数(运行时间和启停次数)的相似系数。基于METS理论,通过计算目标机组在实际运行条件下的实际运行时间和启动次数,得到其在基准运行条件下的等效运行时间和启动次数,将计算结果与最大维修间隔比较,预测目标机组的剩余寿命。为准确计算目标机组在实际工作条件下的运行寿命,克服传统人工统计的不足,提出实时寿命和历史寿命的计算方法。最后,依据上述方法,开发了实现程序,并以某厂燃气轮机热通道部件的剩余寿命预测计算为例,验证了该方法的有效性和实用性。
In order to formulate a scientific and cost-effective gas turbine maintenance strategy and solve the problem of high gas turbine operation and maintenance management cost, a method for predicting the remaining life of the gas turbine based on the multiple ambient time similarity (METS) theory is proposed. The method introduces the same type of unit with a similar operating environment as the reference unit, and uses the empirical operation data to solve the similarity coefficient of the life assessment parameters (running time and start-stop times) under the actual operating conditions and the baseline operating conditions. Based on the METS theory, the actual running time and starting times of the target unit under actual operating conditions are calculated, and the equivalent running time and starting times under the reference operating conditions are obtained. The calculated results are compared with the maximum maintenance interval to predict the target unit’s Remaining life. In order to accurately calculate the operational life of the target unit under actual working conditions and overcome the shortcomings of traditional artificial statistics, the calculation methods of real-time life and historical life are proposed. Finally, based on the above method, the realization program is developed. The calculation of the remaining life prediction of the hot aisle of a gas turbine in a certain plant is taken as an example to verify the effectiveness and practicability of the method.