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2009年天然橡胶期货市场的强劲势头在2010年仅维持了短暂时间,就在政策流动性收紧的系统风险压制下,涨势嘎然而止,但是从国内总体宏观经济面和天然橡胶基本面分析,2010年天然橡胶市场并不悲观。市场最大的不确定性就是后期流动性收紧的力度,这将主导近期天然橡胶走势。综合来看,2010年2月的市场仍将受到政策困扰,但经历了1月的快速回调后,预计继续下行空间有限,但反弹力度也较弱,预计总体以维持区间波动为主,1009合约振幅或在22500～25000元之间。
Natural rubber futures market in 2009, the strong momentum in 2010 remained only a short time, just under the system risk of policy liquidity tightened, the rally came to a halt, but from the overall macroeconomic and natural rubber fundamentals analysis In 2010, the natural rubber market is not pessimistic. The market’s biggest uncertainty is the latter part of the tightening liquidity, which will dominate the recent trend of natural rubber. On the whole, the market in February 2010 will still be subject to policy troubles. However, after the rapid pullback in January, it is expected that the downturn will continue to be limited but the rebound is also weak. It is expected that the overall trend will be mainly in the maintenance of the 1009 contract Amplitude or in between 22500 ~ 25000 yuan.