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选取降水、最高气温、相对湿度、平均风速、积雪日数和雷暴日数等气象因子;高程、坡度和坡向等地理因子;植被类型和NDVI等植被因子及交通、人口、居住地等社会因子作为森林火险的4个风险因子,采用指标归一法、层次分析法和加权综合评价法对西藏地区森林火险进行了定量评价,按火险等级将全区分为低、较低、中、较高和高等5类风险区,分别占40.2%、38.5%、14.4%、5.1%和1.8%,风险等级呈东高西低、南高北低的地理分布。最后利用2001-2012年火情监测公报的96个火点资料,对风险区划进行了评价对比,不同火险等级区的林火发生概率比为:9.8∶5.7∶3.0∶0.2∶0,区划结果能够为西藏森林火险防御规划提供参考。
Select the meteorological factors such as precipitation, maximum temperature, relative humidity, mean wind speed, snow days and thunderstorm days; geographical factors such as elevation, slope and aspect; vegetation factors such as vegetation types and NDVI, social factors such as traffic, population, The four risk factors of forest fire insurance were evaluated quantitatively by using the index normalization method, analytic hierarchy process and weighted comprehensive evaluation method, and the whole area was divided into low, middle, high and high according to the fire insurance level Category 5 risk areas accounted for 40.2%, 38.5%, 14.4%, 5.1% and 1.8% of the total respectively. The risk levels showed a geographical distribution with high east and low west and low north and high in the south. Finally, using the 96 fire points data of the 2001-2012 fire monitoring bulletin, the risk zoning was evaluated and compared. The probability ratio of forest fire occurrence in different fire risk zone was 9.8: 5.7: 3.0: 0.2: 0, and the zoning result could be Provide a reference for the planning of forest fire insurance in Tibet.