高效、快速的新产品开发是如今企业获取市场份额、提升竞争力的关键。迭代和返工是产品开发的主要特征,也是风险的主要来源。提出了一个基于Excel VBA的新产品开发仿真模型,迭代和返工用设计结构矩阵描述,并运用蒙特卡罗方法评估工期特征。最后,用一个压缩机开发项目验证了该方法的有效性,并证明了多方案并行工程对新产品开发工期的明显改善。 Efficient, rapid new product development is the key to today’s business gaining market share and increasing competitiveness. Iteration and rework are the main features of product development and are also the main source of risk. A new product development simulation model based on Excel VBA is proposed. Iteration and rework are used to describe the design structure matrix, and the construction period is evaluated by Monte Carlo method. Finally, a compressor development project validated the effectiveness of this method and demonstrated the significant improvement of the new product development schedule with multi-program parallel engineering.