十八届三中全会提出,深化税收制度改革,要“逐步提高直接税比重”。而通过税制改革来提高直接税比重,有可能在改善收入分配的状况的同时造成效率损失。通过构建可计算一般均衡(CGE)模型,可以对直接税比重不同程度的提高对经济效率及收入再分配状况产生的影响进行模拟。结果显示,提高直接税比重的三种不同方案,均能显著提升税制的收入再分配功能,对GDP、居民总收入和居民总就业有明显的负面影响,但可以起到一次性的抑制物价上涨的作用。 The Third Plenary Session of the 18th CPC Central Committee proposed that deepening the reform of the taxation system should “gradually raise the proportion of direct taxes.” And raising the proportion of direct taxes through tax reform may result in loss of efficiency while improving the distribution of income. By building a CGE model, we can simulate the effects of different levels of direct taxation on economic efficiency and redistribution of income. The results show that all three schemes to increase the proportion of direct tax can significantly improve the income redistribution function of taxation system, which has a significant negative impact on GDP, total income of residents and total employment of residents, but can play a one-time cost-containment effect.