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目的建立学校结核病预警模型,以便及时发现浙江省绍兴市学校结核病聚集性/暴发疫情。方法从《结核病管理信息系统》收集2010-2015年绍兴市学校每半月报告结核病病例数,以半月顺序号(1~144)为自变量,报告病例数为因变量,获得回归方程。再以回归方程得到每半月(1~144)的模拟病例数,计算1~24个半月的残差、残差移动平均、残差标准差。根据实际病例数,分别以x+1.0s、x+1.6s、x+2.0s作为预警线,建立预警图。结果获得回归方程y=-0.014x+6.34。每半个月的模拟发病数的移动平均残差的标准差分别为3.26、2.11、2.13、2.31、3.88、4.22、4.02、3.84、3.90、3.03、2.34、2.21、2.07、2.19、2.08、2.21、2.32、2.43、2.63、2.41、3.11、3.19、3.46和3.23。2010-2015年,绍兴市共发生结核病暴发疫情3起,聚集性疫情Ⅱ级7起,聚集性疫情Ⅲ级14起。预警模型预警结核病暴发疫情、聚集性疫情Ⅱ级和聚集性疫情Ⅲ级灵敏度和特异度分别为100%、98.61%;100%、99.30%;71.43%、99.30%。结论利用移动平均方法建立的预警模型有助于发现学校结核病疫情。
Objective To establish an early warning model of tuberculosis in schools to find out the epidemic of tuberculosis in schools in Shaoxing, Zhejiang Province in time. Methods From 2010 to 2015, schools in Shaoxing City reported the number of tuberculosis cases by semi-monthly sequence number (1 ~ 144) as independent variable and reported the number of cases as dependent variable to obtain the regression equation. Then, the number of simulated cases per half month (1 ~ 144) was obtained by the regression equation, and the residuals, moving residuals and standard deviations of residuals were calculated from 1 to 24 and a half months. According to the actual number of cases, respectively, with x + 1.0s, x + 1.6s, x + 2.0s as a warning line to establish early warning map. The results obtained regression equation y = -0.014x + 6.34. The standard deviations of the moving average residuals of the number of simulations per half month were 3.26, 2.11, 2.13, 2.31, 3.88, 4.22, 4.02, 3.84, 3.90, 3.03, 2.34, 2.21, 2.07, 2.19, 2.08, 2.21, 2.32,2.43,2.63,2.41,3.11,3.19,3.46 and 3.23. From 2010 to 2015, a total of 3 outbreaks of tuberculosis outbreak, 7 outbreaks of grade Ⅱ and 14 outbreaks of grade Ⅲ were found in Shaoxing City. Early warning model early warning TB outbreak, cluster epidemic level Ⅱ and concentrated epidemic level Ⅲ sensitivity and specificity were 100%, 98.61%; 100%, 99.30%; 71.43%, 99.30%. Conclusion The early-warning model established by the moving average method can help find the TB epidemic in schools.