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本文概要介绍了全国地震综合分析预报清理研究的主要结果。地震综合预报经过二十年的发展已初步建立起实践和理论基础,但仍处于探索阶段。我国已初步建设起一个多手段多层次的观测台网,在京津唐、辽宁、川滇等部分地区监测到了一批7级以上地震的异常信息,並取得了5、6级中强地震的一些观测资料。但总的来说预报水平很低,尤其短临预报极其困难。50多个震例资料说明,大陆地震是有前兆的,而且是多样的、复杂的,文章总结了在时空分布和发展上的某些主要特征,並从实验和理论研究中得到了一定程度的物理解释。地震综合预报基本上还处于经验性的阶段,今后应在加强观测和理论研究的基础上,进行重点课题的攻关性研究,探索和发展以一定物理为基础的概率性预报方法,提高其科学水平和监测效益。
This paper presents an overview of the main results of the national earthquake comprehensive analysis and forecast cleanup study. After twenty years’ development, the comprehensive earthquake prediction has basically established the practical and theoretical foundation, but it is still in the exploratory stage. China has initially constructed a multi-level observatory network with multiple means and monitored a number of anomalous information of earthquakes of magnitude 7 or above in some areas such as Beijing, Tianjin, Liaoning, Sichuan, Yunnan and other regions and obtained 5,6 moderate-intensity earthquakes Some observations. However, the overall forecast level is very low, especially for short-term forecast extremely difficult. More than 50 earthquake cases show that the earthquakes in the continent are precursors and diverse and complex. The paper summarizes some major features in the spatiotemporal distribution and development and obtains a certain degree of experimental and theoretical research Physical explanation. Earthquake comprehensive forecasting is still basically at an empirical stage. In the future, based on the strengthening of observation and theoretical research, key earthquake research should be conducted to explore and develop a probabilistic forecasting method based on a certain physics to improve its scientific level And monitor the benefits.