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手足口病是一种常见的传染病,多见于5岁以下儿童。近年来,中国手足口病发病人数逐年上升,疾病疫情也越来越受到公共卫生部门与社会大众的关注。虽然已有不少手足口病相关的研究,但对其时空变化及影响因素驱动效应的研究仍然较少。本文采用贝叶斯时空模型,对2008年山东省手足口病高发时间段(5-8月)的发病时空演变特征进行系统分析,并探究影响手足口病发病风险的气象因素。结果表明:1空间上不同区县的手足口病发病风险存在一定差异,且区县间的发病风险随时间变化趋势也各不相同;2 5月和6月手足口病发病风险明显高于整个研究阶段(5-8月)平均发病风险;3对手足口病发病风险影响较大的气象因素依次是:周平均温度、平均风速和平均气压。本文针对山东省手足口病时空演化特征及气象影响因素的研究,能为高发时间段内手足口病的区域化防控提供科学依据。
Hand, foot and mouth disease is a common infectious disease, more common in children under 5 years of age. In recent years, the number of HFMD in China has been on the rise year by year. Epidemics of diseases have also been paid more and more attention by public health departments and the general public. Although there are a lot of hand-foot-mouth disease-related research, but its spatiotemporal changes and the driving factors of the impact of research is still relatively small. In this paper, Bayesian spatio-temporal model was used to systematically analyze the temporal and spatial evolution characteristics of hand-foot-mouth disease (HFMD) in Shandong Province from May to August in 2008 and explore the meteorological factors that affect the risk of HFMD. The results showed that: 1 There were some differences in the risk of hand-foot-mouth disease in different districts and counties, and the trend of incidence of different hand-foot-and-mouth disease in districts and counties was also different. The risk of HFMD in May and June was significantly higher than that of the whole The mean risk of the study period (May-August); 3 The meteorological factors that have a greater impact on the risk of HFMD were: average weekly temperature, mean wind speed and mean air pressure. In this paper, based on the spatial and temporal evolution characteristics of hand-foot-mouth disease and meteorological factors in Shandong Province, this study can provide a scientific basis for the regional prevention and control of hand-foot-mouth disease in high-incidence period.