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目的:探讨灰色动态模型GM(1,1)(一个变量的一阶微分方程)在承德市中心血站预测血液采集及制备数量变化评价中的应用价值。方法:根据2004-01-2013-12承德市中心血站年采集和制备6类血液品种数据统计资料,建立采集、制备预测模型的Y(t)一阶线性微分方程。将2013年采集、制备预测值与实测值的差异比较,来检验模型的预测能力,分析2014-2016年采集及制备数量。结果:承德市中心血站上述6类血液品种的后验差比(均方差)C均<0.35,小误差概率P值均为1,经拟合优度检验,精度均为优,预计2016年6类血液采集及血液制备品种数量仍处上升趋势。结论:承德市中心血站以上6类血液采集、制备品种数量总体上呈持续上升趋势,可以利用本模型对未来年份血液采集、制备数量进行外推预测。灰色系统一阶模型GM(1,1)成为其强化库存科学管理,保证血液供应计划的有效方法和可行性工具。
Objective: To investigate the application value of gray dynamic model GM (1,1) (first-order differential equation of one variable) in predicting the blood collection and preparation quantity changes of blood stations in Chengde city center. Methods: According to the statistical data of 6 blood species collected and prepared from the blood stations in Chengde city center from January to December 2013, the Y (t) first order linear differential equation of the prediction model was established. Compare the difference between the predicted value and the measured value collected in 2013 to test the predictive ability of the model and analyze the quantity collected and prepared during 2014-2016. Results: The posterior difference (mean square error) C of the above six blood types in Chengde Blood Center were all less than 0.35, and the small error probability P values were both 1. The accuracy of the fitted goodness of fit test was excellent. It is estimated that in 2016 Six blood collection and blood preparation varieties still on the rise. Conclusion: The blood samples collected from above 6 blood stations in Chengde city center showed an overall upward trend. The model can be used to extrapolate the blood collection and preparation quantities in future years. The gray system first-order model GM (1, 1) has become an effective method and a viable tool to strengthen the scientific management of stock and ensure the blood supply plan.