,Modeling dual-scale epidemic dynamics on complex networks with reaction diffusion processes

来源 :浙江大学学报(英文版)(C辑:计算机与电子) | 被引量 : 0次 | 上传用户:tnzx911
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The frequent outbreak of severe foodboe diseases (e.g., haemolytic uraemic syndrome and Listeriosis) in 2011 was of a potential threat that world trade could spread fatal pathogens (e.g., enterohemorrhagic Escherichia coli). The epidemic potential from trade involves both intra-proliferation and inter-diffusion. Here, we present a worldwide vegetable trade network and a stochastic computational model to simulate global trade-mediated epidemics by considering the weighted nodes and edges of the network and the dual-scale dynamics of epidemics. We address two basic issues of network structural impact in global epi-demic pattes:(1) in contrast to the prediction of heterogeneous network models, the broad variability of node degree and edge weights of the vegetable trade network do not determine the threshold of global epidemics;(2) a‘penetration effect’, by which community structures do not restrict propagation at the global scale, quickly facilitates bridging the edges between communities, and leads to synchronized diffusion throughout the entire network. We have also defined an appropriate metric that combines dual-scale behavior and enables quantification of the critical role of bridging edges in disease diffusion from widespread trading. The unusual structure mechanisms of the trade network model may be useful in producing strategies for adaptive immunity and reducing inteational trade frictions.
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