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针对我国经济增长源于对外贸易还是产权制度的争论,本文采用动静态模型对经济增长根源进行对比检验。静态模型分析结果表明,贸易发展和产权制度都能解释经济增长,但传统静态模型无法区分贸易发展和产权制度的相对重要性。基于ADL (1,1,2)的动态分布滞后模型检验表明,我国经济增长取决于产权制度发展。利用贸易模型进行OLS和IV检验,发现贸易发展本身完全可以被产权制度所解释,即增长静态模型中贸易对增长的贡献完全可能是产权制度作用的结果。
In view of the argument that our country’s economic growth originates from foreign trade or the property rights system, this paper uses dynamic and static models to test the causes of economic growth. Static model analysis shows that both trade development and property rights system can explain economic growth, but the traditional static model can not distinguish the relative importance of trade development and property rights system. The dynamic distributional lag model test based on ADL (1,1,2) shows that the economic growth in our country depends on the development of property rights system. Using OLS and IV tests of the trade model, we find that the development of trade itself can be completely explained by the property rights system. That is, the contribution of trade to growth in the growth static model may well be the result of the property rights system.