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随着人们消费能力的增强和航空业市场化的深入,中国民航客运量发生了爆炸性的增长,但由于民航面对的是高端客运市场,行业具有高风险的特征,容易受到外部冲击的影响。通过时间序列模型的干预分析考察了非典事件对民航客运量的影响。从分析结果看,非典外部冲击对民航客运量的负面作用很快被市场反弹和相关优惠政策抚平,并对客运量的增长带来了持续的正影响。这一结果说明高速发展阶段的民航对抗非典这类外部冲击的能力较强,直接和滞后的减税政策并非最优的政策选择。
With the enhancement of people’s spending power and the deepening of market-oriented aviation industry, the passenger traffic volume of China’s civil aviation has exploded. However, due to the high-end passenger transportation market faced by the civil aviation industry, the industry is characterized by high risks and is easily affected by external shocks. Intervention analysis of time series model examines the impact of SARS on the passenger traffic of civil aviation. From the analysis results, the negative impact of the SARS external shock on the passenger traffic of civil aviation was quickly hedged by the market rebound and related preferential policies, and brought a continuous positive impact on the growth of passenger traffic. This result shows that civil aviation in the high-speed development stage is more capable of fighting such external shocks as SARS. Direct and delayed tax cuts are not the optimal policy choice.