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研究碳排放问题首先需要对碳排放量进行估算。本文首先根据国家、地区、行业不同的能源消费特征和可利用的统计数据,提出了不同层次的碳排放量测算方法,并估算了全国、各个行业、各省市区的碳排放量。基于指数分解方法的特点,利用碳排放的完全指数分解方法——对数平均Divisia指数(LMDI法)定量分析了中国1995年-2007年碳排放变化的影响因素和贡献率,影响因素包括4种,即经济规模效应、结构效应、能源强度效应和碳强度效应。分解模型结果表明,不同时期这4种效应对碳排放变化的贡献率是不同的,1995年-2007年对碳排放增加影响最大的因素是经济发展。结果也提醒国家需要对这一时期内的产业政策、能源发展措施等方面进行反思。
To study carbon emissions, we first need to estimate carbon emissions. Based on different energy consumption characteristics and available statistical data of different countries, regions and industries, this paper proposes different methods for calculating carbon emissions and estimates the carbon emissions of the whole country, industries and provinces. Based on the characteristics of the exponential decomposition method, the influencing factors and contribution rates of carbon emissions in China from 1995 to 2007 were quantitatively analyzed by means of the logarithmic average Divisia index (LMDI method). The influencing factors included four , That is, economies of scale effect, structural effect, energy intensity effect and carbon intensity effect. The results of the decomposition model show that the contribution rates of these four effects to the changes of carbon emissions are different in different periods. The factor that has the greatest impact on the increase of carbon emissions from 1995 to 2007 is the economic development. The results also remind the state need to reflect on industrial policies, energy development measures and other aspects of this period.