本文基于山东、河北和河南三省的农户调研数据,利用多元Logistics模型分析了粮食收储价格下调和补贴政策调整对2016年粮农种植决策的影响。结果表明,粮食销售价格越高,对政府粮食收购价格越满意,农户越倾向于增加种植面积;从不同种植规模来看,较大规模农户受粮食价格下跌影响而减少种植面积的可能性更大;从不同粮食品种来看,玉米预期种植面积受玉米临时收储价格下调影响而减少得更为显著。此外,粮食补贴政策向大户倾斜在稳定小麦预期种植面积上起到了一定的积极作用。 Based on the survey data of farmers in Shandong, Hebei and Henan provinces, this paper analyzes the impact of grain purchasing and storage price reduction and subsidy policy adjustment on the 2016 grain planting decision-making based on the multivariate Logistics model. The results showed that the higher the grain selling price, the more satisfied the government grain purchase price, the more the peasant households tended to increase the planting area. According to the different planting scale, the larger-scale peasant households were more likely to reduce the planting area due to the falling grain prices ; From different grain varieties, corn expected acreage affected by the temporary reduction of corn prices affected to reduce the more significant. In addition, the tilt of grain subsidy policies toward large households has played a positive role in stabilizing the expected area of ​​wheat planted.