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利用全国五大地区房价及相关数据,建立面板均值回归模型和面板GARCH模型,研究了货币政策对房价及其波动的影响.实证表明:在控制房价方面,信贷控制手段有效,但在购房者预期没有改变时,利率手段无效;在房价波动方面,所有地区的房价波动都受前期波动的的正向影响,不同地区的房价波动区别很大,珠三角和长三角房价波动最大,而环渤海地区的波动较小,中西部地区波动最小.最后,对实证结果进行经济分析并提出相应对策建议.
Using the five regional price and related data, we establish panel average regression model and panel GARCH model to study the impact of monetary policy on housing prices and its volatility.Experimental results show that credit control measures are effective in controlling housing prices, but buyers are not expected In the case of price fluctuations, the fluctuations of house prices in all regions are all positively affected by the fluctuations in the previous period. The price fluctuations in different regions vary greatly. The prices in the Pearl River Delta and the Yangtze River Delta fluctuate most, while in the Bohai Rim With less fluctuation and the least fluctuation in central and western China.Finally, the author analyzes the empirical results and puts forward corresponding countermeasures and suggestions.