【摘 要】
：
针对径流预报误差给水电站水库发电调度带来的风险,在采用组合模型对月径流进行预报和优化调度计算的基础上,构建了水电站水库预报发电调度的模糊风险分析模型框架,并在对入
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针对径流预报误差给水电站水库发电调度带来的风险,在采用组合模型对月径流进行预报和优化调度计算的基础上,构建了水电站水库预报发电调度的模糊风险分析模型框架,并在对入库径流进行随机模拟的条件下设计了模糊风险分析模型的求解流程。三峡水电站水库的实例应用表明,预报误差在5、10月对发电调度的影响较大,且水电站在枯水期的发电模糊风险比汛期高。
Aiming at the risk brought by runoff forecast error to the generation dispatching of hydropower station reservoirs, the model of fuzzy risk analysis for hydropower station reservoir dispatching and dispatching is constructed based on the combination model of monthly runoff forecasting and optimal dispatch calculation. Under the conditions of stochastic simulation of runoff, a fuzzy risk analysis model solving process is designed. The practical application of the Three Gorges Reservoir shows that the prediction error has a great influence on the power generation scheduling in May and October, and the power generation fuzzy risk of the hydropower station in the dry season is higher than that in the flood season.
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