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目的:了解海门市5岁以下儿童死亡状况、死因顺位及变化趋势,预测海门市2013~2015年5岁以下儿童死亡趋势,为公共卫生政策制定提供参考。方法:对海门市2003~2012年5岁以下儿童死亡信息进行流行病学描述,率的比较用χ2检验,运用灰色模型GM(1,1)预测未来3年5岁以下儿童死亡率。结果:2003~2012年海门市5岁以下儿童平均死亡率为7.20‰,死因前5位依次为先天性心脏病、其他先天畸形变性和染色体异常、起源于围生期的其他情况、溺亡、新生儿产伤和窒息,2003~2012年婴儿、新生儿以及5岁以下儿童死亡率均呈下降趋势。灰色预测模型结果显示:到2015年5岁以下男女儿童死亡率分别为4.01‰和2.42‰,婴儿死亡率为1.62‰,新生儿死亡率为1.10‰。结论:继续加强基层医疗卫生机构孕产妇保健和儿童救治能力建设,强化对孕产妇的健康管理、健康教育和对儿童意外伤害的防范,可以有效降低5岁以下儿童死亡率。
OBJECTIVE: To understand the death status and the cause of death among children under 5 in Haimen and to predict the trend of death among children under 5 years of age in 2013 ~ 2015 in Haimen, and to provide a reference for the formulation of public health policy. Methods: Epidemiological information on death information of children under 5 years of age from 2003 to 2012 in Haimen was compared. Chi-square test and gray model GM (1,1) were used to predict the mortality rate of children under 5 years old in the future. Results: The average death rate of children under 5 years of age from 2003 to 2012 was 7.20 ‰. The top 5 causes of death were congenital heart disease, other congenital deformities and chromosomal abnormalities, other cases of perinatal origin, drowning, Neonatal births and asphyxia, infant mortality rate, neonatal birth rate and children under 5 years of age all showed a decreasing trend from 2003 to 2012. The results of the gray prediction model show that by 2015, the death rates of boys and girls under five are 4.01 ‰ and 2.42 ‰ respectively, the infant mortality rate is 1.62 ‰ and the neonatal mortality rate is 1.10 ‰. CONCLUSIONS: Continuing to strengthen the capacity building of maternal and child health care in primary health care institutions and strengthening the prevention and control of maternal health management, health education and accidental injury to children can effectively reduce the mortality rate of children under 5 years of age.