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基于协整理论与误差修正模型的动态计量方法,以北京市和杭州市的交通运输投资量和GDP数据为研究样本,分别建立了两城市交通运输投资与经济增长的长期均衡关系和短期波动关系,并对误差修正项进行了详细分析。研究显示,交通运输投资无论是在短期还是在长期内,均对经济有正的促进作用,长期效果则更为明显;相较于北京市,杭州市短期内交通投资拉动效应表现并不显著,其原因在于杭州市近年来交通政策倾向于建设环境友好、资源节约型的低碳城市,并以尽量减少资源消耗为目标,从长期来看,杭州市与北京市交通投资与经济增长关系相似,说明打造低碳交通系统并不等于制约经济的发展,而是一种眼光更为长远的可持续发展战略。
Based on the co-integration theory and error correction model, a dynamic measurement method is proposed. Taking the investment in transportation and GDP in Beijing and Hangzhou as the research samples, the long-term and short-term fluctuations of the investment and economic growth in the two cities are established respectively , And a detailed analysis of the error correction term. Research shows that transportation investment has a positive promotion effect on the economy both in the short and long term, but the long-term effect is more obvious. Compared with Beijing and Hangzhou, the driving effect of transportation investment in the short term is not significant, The reason is that in recent years, Hangzhou has tended to build a low-carbon environment-friendly and resource-saving city with aiming at minimizing the consumption of resources. In the long run, Hangzhou has a similar relationship with Beijing’s economic growth and investment, This shows that creating a low-carbon transport system does not mean restricting the development of the economy, but rather a sustainable development strategy with a longer-term perspective.