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根据现代生物技术开发周期长、发展阶段多、高技术风险和高市场风险并存的特征,以阶段门模型为基础,构建了改进的二项式实物期权定价模型。与传统二项式模型相比,改进后的模型区分了技术风险和市场风险,并在期权计算公式中增加了技术成功概率参数,反映了现代生物技术项目的内在特征。最后以新药开发项目为例,详细介绍了模型在现代生物技术产品定价分析中的应用。
According to the characteristics of modern biotechnology development cycle, multi-stage development, high-tech risk and high market risk coexistence, an improved binomial real option pricing model is constructed based on the phase-door model. Compared with the traditional binomial model, the improved model distinguishes between technical risk and market risk, and adds technical success probability parameter to the formula of option calculation, which reflects the inherent characteristics of modern biotechnology project. Finally, taking the new drug development project as an example, the application of the model in the pricing analysis of modern biotechnology products is introduced in detail.